Could Layoffs Signal a Recession?

Predictions of an upcoming recession are seen daily in global news sources and online. But how can we know for sure what’s going to happen?

Last time we looked at bond yields and stock prices as possible indicators of a coming crisis. Today we’ll look at layoffs as a possible signal of recession.

Layoffs

One of the reasons that the US Federal Reserve raised its rate for overnight borrowing by investment banks and financial traders this year was that employment had improved in late 2015.

However, articles about the employment numbers pointed out that quantity does not always equal quality. Continue reading →

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What’s up for 2016?

Forecasting an economic recession  

A number of serious indicators of recession in the US and elsewhere in the world have been visibly in play since last fall.

Predictions of an upcoming crisis are seen daily in foreign news sources and online. But how can we know for sure what’s going to happen?

Right now the biggest downturn lies in the financial markets in the US and elsewhere. Stocks have plunged this year. Likewise, long-term US government bonds (e.g., thirty-year treasury bonds) are becoming less popular with buyers too.

The long-term government-bond trend is a good indicator of recession, but the current stock market slump isn’t necessarily so.
Continue reading →

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Why America Needs Syrian Refugees

Christmas Past

Many years ago when I started junior high, a couple of girls from a street near my house where poorer people lived would follow me every morning when I walked to school.

One girl was quite large and very much a bully. The other one was her minion. Every morning they’d taunt me on the way to school.

At holiday season our homeroom teacher said we were all to draw names and exchange gifts with each other. The gifts couldn’t cost more than a dollar or so.

And of course, I drew the bully’s name. Continue reading →

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